Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
This interview was recorded on Friday, August 2, during Friday's sell-off but before the vicious sell-off on Monday. he did talk about the potential for an unwind of the yen carry trade before the crash in Japanese equities and the yen carry trade was widely blamed for Monday's steep decline. But Brent doesn't really care about being "right" he is an investor first and foremost. On that point, I think people perceive that a majority of his portfolio is based on the surging of the U.S. dollar but as he says it's a very small percentage and he recommends using this "cheap hedge" (for example buying calls on USDHKD) as a way to comfortably go long risk assets. He is also (and has been) a bull on gold and he remains *not* a bull on Treasurys (which he thinks some incorrectly think he is).
__
Follow Brent Johnson on Twitter https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
__
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:34 Brent's Market Views
06:56 Brent's Dollar View
13:44 VanEck Ad
14:26 Interview Continues
17:57 Potential For A "Fiscal Doom Loop"
19:41 People Have Been Calling For The End Of The Dollar For Longer Than Most People Have Been Alive, And It Hasn't Happened. Brent Is Betting That Those People Will Continue To Be Wrong For At Least A Little While Longer
20:20 People Have Been Calling For The End Of The Dollar For Longer Than Most People Have Been Alive, And It Hasn't Happened. Brent Is Betting That Those People Will Continue To Be Wrong For At Least A Little While Longer
26:07 Hedging For The Dollar Milkshake In A Responsible, Risk-Defined Way
36:46 Permissionless Ad
37:53 Connection Between Dollar and U.S. Stock Market
43:19 Potential For A Global Dollar Squeeze
48:37 Why The Rest of The World Suffers From A Stronger Dollar
01:02:00 Would Trump And Vance Ticket Succeed In Weakening The U.S. Dollar To Promote Exports?
01:04:51 Michael Pettis' Frameworks That U.S. Fiscal Deficit Is Large Because U.S. Trade Deficit Is Large
01:13:03 Does Weaponization of The U.S. Dollar Force De-Dollarization?
01:16:17 Brent's Views On Economy And Stock Market: He Doesn't Think U.S. Is Headed For A Recession
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets
This interview was recorded on Friday, August 2, during Friday's sell-off but before the vicious sell-off on Monday. he did talk about the potential for an unwind of the yen carry trade before the crash in Japanese equities and the yen carry trade was widely blamed for Monday's steep decline. But Brent doesn't really care about being "right" he is an investor first and foremost. On that point, I think people perceive that a majority of his portfolio is based on the surging of the U.S. dollar but as he says it's a very small percentage and he recommends using this "cheap hedge" (for example buying calls on USDHKD) as a way to comfortably go long risk assets. He is also (and has been) a bull on gold and he remains *not* a bull on Treasurys (which he thinks some incorrectly think he is).
__
Follow Brent Johnson on Twitter https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
__
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:34 Brent's Market Views
06:56 Brent's Dollar View
13:44 VanEck Ad
14:26 Interview Continues
17:57 Potential For A "Fiscal Doom Loop"
19:41 People Have Been Calling For The End Of The Dollar For Longer Than Most People Have Been Alive, And It Hasn't Happened. Brent Is Betting That Those People Will Continue To Be Wrong For At Least A Little While Longer
20:20 People Have Been Calling For The End Of The Dollar For Longer Than Most People Have Been Alive, And It Hasn't Happened. Brent Is Betting That Those People Will Continue To Be Wrong For At Least A Little While Longer
26:07 Hedging For The Dollar Milkshake In A Responsible, Risk-Defined Way
36:46 Permissionless Ad
37:53 Connection Between Dollar and U.S. Stock Market
43:19 Potential For A Global Dollar Squeeze
48:37 Why The Rest of The World Suffers From A Stronger Dollar
01:02:00 Would Trump And Vance Ticket Succeed In Weakening The U.S. Dollar To Promote Exports?
01:04:51 Michael Pettis' Frameworks That U.S. Fiscal Deficit Is Large Because U.S. Trade Deficit Is Large
01:13:03 Does Weaponization of The U.S. Dollar Force De-Dollarization?
01:16:17 Brent's Views On Economy And Stock Market: He Doesn't Think U.S. Is Headed For A Recession
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets
- Category
- Management
Be the first to comment