The New Rules of Success (Making Money in 2022 is Different)

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What we've been taught about how to succeed in the world, much of the conventional wisdom, is in error. It was probably once true but it's really bad advice today and it's hurting a lot of people because the mental models of the world aren't up to date.

If you look at the conventional education out there on success, personal development, business wisdom, etc. you get some recurring themes like:
- Work hard
- Add value
- Think long term
- Practice integrity
- Manage risk
- Become a specialist
Etc.

Think Short Term
Long term thinking is mostly bunk in a world where someone can go from close to nothing to millions in a year or two.
To give some context over a century ago Standard Oil created the first billionaire (John D Rockefeller) in about 40 years, really fast for those times.
A couple years ago the scooter start-up Bird reached a $1 billion valuation in well under a year!
The world changes fast today.

Forget Moats Pursue Execution Speed
This is the Elon Musk advice and we've got to admit it's worked pretty well for him. Warren Buffett has preached this stuff about investing in companies with strong moats for years but today in the fast-moving world many of those are breaking down and you don't have much of a clue what will happen in the next 10 or 20 years so instead focus on as Mark Zuckerberg would say "moving fast and breaking things".
Businesses and opportunities are disposable, jump from one to the next.

You Don't Need to Add Value
Value is great, lots of the feel good gurus will tell you stuff like "how much money you make is in direct proportion to how many people you serve". No, nonsense.
Back in the day adding value used to be much more valuable, today anything that can't scale big and quickly isn't very valuable and you can add a ton of value without being able to scale.
On the flip side you can scale things that add zero value at all.
The new commodities primarily:
1. Attention
2. Arbitrage
If you can take advantage of these things for something valuable then great but by and large most of the people I know who have made the most money the fastest without being criminals have done it in these ways.
The thing is in the modern world with rapid transaction speed you can arbitrage a tremendous amount between continents VERY VERY fast and make a risk free spread off it. It might not last long but it doesn't matter, you're in and out with your money and on to the next thing.
One of the people I know who did the best over the last couple years went from close to nothing to over $18 million inside about 2 years just essentially playing arbitrage, it added no value to the world and no value to any other player out there, it was just scooping up little shifts in the market.

The other is attention. Kylie Jenner sold half her company for $600 million ($1.2 billion valuation) with a staff of 7 people within just a few short years why? Because she has a huge social media following because she can get attention. Most of the self-made millionaires I know in their early 20s did so off marketing, off the ability to get attention and achieve it through media buying arbitrage.

You Make Money Off Scale Not Effectiveness
It's remarkable to me how poorly run many of the biggest companies in the world are but it doesn't matter because they can make billions.

Ray Dalio one of the most famous investors barely beats the market if at all and yet he's a deca billionaire (he's built all that wealth since just the early 80s) and why? Because he's managed to gather more money under management ($162 billion) than any other hedge fund so even with low fees he's going to make a fortune.

Ride Trends
Want to build fast? Be early on trends, you can grow 10x as quick with 50% of the effort as in normal circumstances. Cryptocurrencies were something none of the big famous fund managers were investing in in 2017 and yet tons of kids with no investing knowledge at all, who couldn't understand valuations and PE multiples crushed them all earning better returns in a year than they will earn in 10 years.

Focus on First Order Thinking and The Obvious
When you get into fancy business degrees, complex investing strategies, etc. you've got people doing this very precise analysis figuring out how to scrape out an extra 1% off a portfolio.
There's plenty of talk about looking at second-order thinking to accurately predict the future.
Guess what?
Most of those people don't have really exceptional investing returns or achievements in their lives.
Stop focusing on small incremental gains and instead look for BIG super obvious gaps.