The Cost of Fragmentation: Geopolitics and the Impact on the Global Economy in 2023 and Beyond

World Economic Outlook, April 2023: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/04/11/world-economic-outlook-april-2023
Global Financial Stability Report, April 2023: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2023/04/11/global-financial-stability-report-april-2023

War in Europe and heightened geopolitical tensions between the world’s largest economies have put new strains on global economic integration. Ahead of the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings, the IMF is releasing new research that helps quantify some of the possible costs.

How will geoeconomic fragmentation reshape the trajectory of cross-border capital flows? Would a further escalation of geopolitical tensions between countries impact foreign direct investment (FDI)? And how would it affect other cross-border investments, such as portfolio flows and bank lending? What would be the short- and long-run implications for the global economy?


- Mario Catalán, Deputy Chief, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF
- Andrea Presbitero, Economist, Research Department, IMF
- Megan Greene, Senior Fellow, Brown University; Global Chief Economist, The Kroll Institute

Moderator: Josh Lipsky, Senior Director, GeoEconomics Center, Atlantic Council
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