Simple ecosystem forecasts: Structural models for habitat and integrated ecosystem assessments

Date: September 11, 2024

Series: EBM/EBFM Seminar Series

Presenter: James Thorson, NOAA Alaska Fisheries Science Center, statistical ecologist

Sponsor: NMFS Ecosystem Based Management/Ecosystem Based Fishery Management Seminar Series (EBM/EBFM)

POC: EBFM/EBM Environmental Science Coordinator, Peg Brady ([email protected])

Abstract: Ocean scientists must engage stakeholders while forecasting dynamics for many interacting variables. I introduce structural models for time-series and spatial analysis, using fast and user-friendly packages in R. Structural models allow stakeholders to inform and test causal mechanisms, while fitting scientific data and forecasting future dynamics. I discuss examples from integrated ecosystem assessments (the eastern Bering Ecosystem Status Report) and habitat analysis (sponge and coral associations for fishes in Alaska).

Keywords: Integrated Ecosystem Assessment, species distribution models, stakeholder engagement, forecasting

Bio: Dr. James Thorson is a statistical ecologist at the Alaska Fisheries Science Center. He conducts research regarding global fisheries status, spatial modelling methods, and life-history theory. His book “Spatio-Temporal Models for Ecologists” was just published, and he is currently developing a state-space extension to Ecopath-with-Ecosim https://james-thorson-noaa.github.io/EcoState/