Bilal Hafeez, CEO of Macro Hive, is a veteran of macro analysis and he joins today’s interview with some truly bold calls. Hafeez argues that a severe recession is coming but the Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates to 7 or even 8 percent in order to destroy inflation. Hafeez tells Farley that he thinks private markets (venture capital but in particular private equity) will perform poorly as earnings fall and financing costs rise sharply. Hafeez also shares his outlook on China, Energy, the U.S. Dollar, and crypto.
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To get 40% off on an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime, go to https://macrohive.com/become-a-member/?add-to-cart=6308 and use promotional code “JACK.” Offer ends on January 6th, 2022.
Macro Hive Prime membership includes cross market strategy, economic analysis, central bank policy analysis, equity insights and trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, and academic paper summaries. To get a sense of the quality of Macro Hive’s analysis, check out Bilal’s piece on asset allocation: https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/asset-allocation-update-cash-wins-2022/
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Follow Bilal Hafeez on Twitter https://twitter.com/bilalhafeez123
Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:42 Macro Outlook For 2023
05:32 Severe Recession Incoming
10:20 Complete Implosion" of Private Markets Is Gray Swan For 2023
22:55 Venture Capital Is Already Feeling The Pain
25:38 Other Grey Swans: TikTok & World Peace
31:16 China
38:15 Can China Print Its Way Out Of Its Mess?
42:08 Bond Market Outlook
49:39 Energy
54:21 Is Europe In A Recession?
55:51 How High Will Central Banks Raise Interest Rates?
57:35 Discount To Macro Hive Prime
01:00:24 The U.S. Dollar
01:09:59 Crypto
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
--
To get 40% off on an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime, go to https://macrohive.com/become-a-member/?add-to-cart=6308 and use promotional code “JACK.” Offer ends on January 6th, 2022.
Macro Hive Prime membership includes cross market strategy, economic analysis, central bank policy analysis, equity insights and trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, and academic paper summaries. To get a sense of the quality of Macro Hive’s analysis, check out Bilal’s piece on asset allocation: https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/asset-allocation-update-cash-wins-2022/
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Follow Bilal Hafeez on Twitter https://twitter.com/bilalhafeez123
Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:
https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
--
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:42 Macro Outlook For 2023
05:32 Severe Recession Incoming
10:20 Complete Implosion" of Private Markets Is Gray Swan For 2023
22:55 Venture Capital Is Already Feeling The Pain
25:38 Other Grey Swans: TikTok & World Peace
31:16 China
38:15 Can China Print Its Way Out Of Its Mess?
42:08 Bond Market Outlook
49:39 Energy
54:21 Is Europe In A Recession?
55:51 How High Will Central Banks Raise Interest Rates?
57:35 Discount To Macro Hive Prime
01:00:24 The U.S. Dollar
01:09:59 Crypto
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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