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Risk is about the future and there is no data for the future. So how do you estimate risk in order to manage it? This video will explain how human judgment can serve as an input device but only if it is done scientifically so that ratio scale measures are multiplied producing mathematically meaningful results -- something that is often not done properly in practice.
Chapters:
00: There is no data for the future
0:31 Issue management versus risk management
1:14 Human judgment
1:44 Levels of measurement
3:51 Common mistakes
5:56 Methods for deriving risk measures from human judgments
19:19 Validation exercise
22:37 Estimates for risk management elements
Links:
THE $25,000,000,000∗ EIGENVECTOR
THE LINEAR ALGEBRA BEHIND GOOGLE
https://www.math.arizona.edu/~glickenstein/math443f08/bryanleise.pdf
Area Validation Exercise:
http://bit.ly/EstimateWithWords
Improving Inconsistencies
https://bit.ly/improvinginconsistency
Risk is about the future and there is no data for the future. So how do you estimate risk in order to manage it? This video will explain how human judgment can serve as an input device but only if it is done scientifically so that ratio scale measures are multiplied producing mathematically meaningful results -- something that is often not done properly in practice.
Chapters:
00: There is no data for the future
0:31 Issue management versus risk management
1:14 Human judgment
1:44 Levels of measurement
3:51 Common mistakes
5:56 Methods for deriving risk measures from human judgments
19:19 Validation exercise
22:37 Estimates for risk management elements
Links:
THE $25,000,000,000∗ EIGENVECTOR
THE LINEAR ALGEBRA BEHIND GOOGLE
https://www.math.arizona.edu/~glickenstein/math443f08/bryanleise.pdf
Area Validation Exercise:
http://bit.ly/EstimateWithWords
Improving Inconsistencies
https://bit.ly/improvinginconsistency
- Category
- Management
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