Part 2 - How To Estimate Risks Given That There Is No Data For The Future

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Risk is about the future and there is no data for the future. So how do you estimate risk in order to manage it? This video will explain how human judgment can serve as an input device but only if it is done scientifically so that ratio scale measures are multiplied producing mathematically meaningful results -- something that is often not done properly in practice.

Chapters:
00: There is no data for the future
0:31 Issue management versus risk management
1:14 Human judgment
1:44 Levels of measurement
3:51 Common mistakes
5:56 Methods for deriving risk measures from human judgments
19:19 Validation exercise
22:37 Estimates for risk management elements

Links:
THE $25,000,000,000∗ EIGENVECTOR
THE LINEAR ALGEBRA BEHIND GOOGLE
https://www.math.arizona.edu/~glickenstein/math443f08/bryanleise.pdf

Area Validation Exercise:
http://bit.ly/EstimateWithWords

Improving Inconsistencies
https://bit.ly/improvinginconsistency
Category
Management
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