Are Bonds Pricing In A Market Crash? | Alfonso Peccatiello

Today’s guest, Alfonso Peccatiello, is a man with a rare insight into the macro forces driving the moves in markets which have perplexed many, but not all, investors. One such move is the recent flattening of the yield curve, which belies commonly-held views about the relationship between bond yields and inflation.

Up until very recently, Alfonso was running a multi-billion dollar fixed-income book. But he has left the world of portfolio management behind him to focus full time on writing and thinking about macro. His analysis can be found on his newsletter, The Macro Compass.
Alfonso shares with Blockworks’ Jack Farley the real reason why long-term bond yields have been falling. Among other topics, the pair discuss:
- the global credit impulse turning negative
- long-term structural forces (such as demographics & debt)
- why quantitative easing (QE) isn’t inflationary

Alfonso Peccatiello’s Twitter: @MacroAlf

Jack Farley’s Twitter: @JackFarley96

Alfonso Peccatiello’s newsletter, The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/

Article on quantitative easing: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/tmc-6-all-they-told-you-about-printing

Article on 2022 outlook: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/2022portfolio

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction
12:59 The Macro Compass
17:18 Why Aren't Banks Lending?
31:20 The Plumbing Of The Bond Market
38:09 COVID-19 and The Global Economy
43:35 Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)
49:16 How To Not Suck At Trading
52:18 Debt and Demographics
1:00:05 Thoughts on Crypto